B12 G THE GLOBE AND MAIL | SATURDAY, MAY 9, 2026 GLOBE INVESTOR T he greatest bull market in history is widely considered to be 1982 to 2000, when the advent of personal computers and the internet age drove 20-per- cent annual returns for nearly two decades. Hot on its heels, and closing the gap every day, is what we’re living through now. Welcome to the Roaring 2020s, when the only thing rising faster than sea levels is the stock mar- ket. From climate change to re- gime change, it’s been a decade of utter chaos so far. The financial constant through it all has been a powerful uptrend in stock prices. Canadian and U.S. equity benchmarks are up by roughly 140 per cent since the end of 2019. Now, track those gains back to early 2009, when the bull market really got started. This golden age for investing, now in its 18th year, has generated annual returns of 17 per cent in the S&P 500, on av- erage. The S&P/TSX Composite Index gained 13 per cent a year over that time, including divi- dends. The average Canadian stock in- vestor has earned far less than that. They park their savings in underperforming mutual funds with high fees. They get spooked by market sell-offs. They trade too much. And they risk letting a gen- erational investing opportunity pass them by. You don’t have to believe the market is unsinkable. The world is a scary place right now, and a booming stock market is tough to reconcile. But letting fear get in the way of participating in a bull market for the ages would be a co- lossal mistake. Here’s how to make the most of it, while it lasts. LEAN IN On paper, there have been plenty of good reasons to bail out of the stock market over the last six years: a pandemic that killed mil- lions, the collapse of the global supply chain, the most severe in- flation in a generation, a rupture of the world trade framework and now the world’s worst-ever ener- gy security crisis. All of which proved to be op- portunities to get on the band- wagon. Judging by the numbers, many couldn’t stomach the ride. Above all else, the retail inves- tor experience over the long term has been “defined by missed op- portunity,” said U.S. research firm Dalbar, which has for years been measuring just how much inves- tors cheat themselves out of. Dalbar estimates the average American equity-fund investor sacrificed about a quarter of the returns the S&P 500 generated over the past decade. Leaning in doesn’t mean tak- ing excessive risks. But investors shouldn’t let fear shrink their stock market exposure below where it ought to be. Those with an investing horizon of about sev- en years or longer can afford to be aggressive. VOO AND CHILL An extreme passive approach to stock investing is to plow one’s money into a major index fund and ignore the market noise. VOO is the ticker for the Van- guard S&P 500 ETF, the enormous U.S. exchange-traded fund that has close to US$1-trillion in assets under management. Hence, “VOO and chill” has become shorthand for a minimalist buy- and-hold mantra. For Canadian investors, the more appropriate vehicle may be the iShares Core Equity ETF Port- folio, or something similar. The idea is the same. Drive your investment fees as close to zero as possible. Forget market timing. Ignore the news. And cap- ture as much of the bull market as possible, no matter what. For those not planning on retir- ing before 2033 or so, it can make a lot of sense. Let the magic of com- pounding do its work while other investors argue about timing. Few Canadian investors choose this route. Passively managed stock funds have a market share of just 23 per cent in Canada, ac- cording to a PWL Capital report. Most investor money sits in funds that try to beat the market by picking individual stocks. While the vast majority fail to do so, they still charge fees that are more than quadruple their passive equivalents, on average. SELL-OFFS ARE THE PRICE OF ADMISSION It’s not fun watching your money disappear. Since 2009, there have been at least eight major sell-offs in the S&P/TSX Composite Index of at least 10 per cent. Each one felt like it could be the start of something dark and dif- ferent. It’s easy to catastrophize in these moments. Modern portfo- lio tools let us watch our nest eggs shrink in real time. Enduring these corrections when your instincts are telling you to retreat is usually rewarded handsomely. Investors who suc- cumb to panic then face the very difficult decision of when to get back in. WHAT IF YOU MISSED OUT? Seeing the stock market ring in re- cord-highs while you’re on the sidelines can’t feel great. Obvious- ly buying low is no longer an op- tion. Who wants to tap into the stock market at its peak? The thing is, record-highs are usually a good sign. And there’s lots of research showing that money invested at market peaks does just as well over the long term as money invested at any other time. Not being in the mar- ket is probably going to cost you. Don’t worry too much about being precise. Bull markets like these reward participation above all else. Historic bull market is here. Don’t overthink it. Welcome to the Roaring 2020s, when the only thing rising faster than sea levels is the market Two all-time great bull markets S&P 500 returns, indexed to zero at stock market lows THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE:S&P GLOBAL MARKET INTELLIGENCE 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1982 to 2000 2009 to 2026 Number of years into bull market TIM SHUFELT OPINION B lackBerry Ltd. has become nearly invisible to consumers, and inves- tors seem to like it that way. The share price has been on a tear over the past month, since the Cana- dian technology company – formerly Re- search In Motion Ltd., back in the days when it made ubiquitous BlackBerry smartphones – delivered quarterly finan- cial results that suggest there may be something better than visibility: stability. In place of volatile earnings and reve- nues, BlackBerry is now delivering consis- tent performance thanks largely to its QNX division, which makes software em- bedded in 275 million vehicles worldwide (BlackBerry also operates a cybersecurity division). Total revenues have been improving for three consecutive quarters, rising by 10 per cent in the fiscal fourth quarter, year- over-year – and 20 per cent at QNX. Black- Berry has reported positive net earnings for four consecutive quarters, also under- scoring that a rebound may be gaining momentum. Consistency makes the stock easier to value with common financial metrics, such as the price-to-earnings ratio, and adds some confidence to financial projec- tions for the year ahead. “BlackBerry’s turnaround is complete and we are now firmly focused on growth and value creation,” BlackBerry’s chief ex- ecutive officer John Giamatteo said during a conference call with analysts in April. It is not uncommon for executives to mix up fanciful dreams with actual ac- complishments. But in this case, Mr. Gia- matteo’s words have gained some traction in the stock market. The share price, which had meandered as low as $4.38 in late March before the earnings announcement in April, has surged to a high of $8.51 as of midday Fri- day – for a gain of nearly 95 per cent in just six weeks. The Wall Street Journal has taken no- tice of BlackBerry’s turnaround, with a warm profile of the company earlier this month. It’s no small feat for a Canadian compa- ny valued at just $4.8-billion, based on the combined value of its outstanding shares, to attract mainstream attention in a crowded U.S. tech landscape that includes giants like Nvidia Corp., Apple Inc. and Mi- crosoft Corp. Sure, there’s a novelty factor at play here. Hey, remember the old BlackBerry de- vices with physical keyboards? Well, the same company is now responsible for the hidden software in millions of cars, pro- viding collision avoidance, adaptive cruise control and more. A once-floundering company is back with a second act. But the stock’s spectacular gains raise the question of how far this second act can go. It’s a fair question, given the number of false starts over the years. The share price soared 150 per cent over a four-month pe- riod starting in late 2024, only to slide 46 per cent over the next 12 months as earn- ings remained volatile and investor en- thusiasm fizzled. For what it’s worth, the current share price is brushing against the most bullish forecasts from analysts – US$6 (around $8.20), from Todd Coupland at CIBC Cap- ital Markets – which suggests that investor excitement may be running ahead of the more sober approach of number crunch- ers. The good news is that the bullish case rests on consistency rather than a stun- ning rebound that will return the compa- ny to its loftier days. The share price peaked at $149.90 in 2008, when BlackBerry was still the go-to name in wireless communication devices and annual revenue was climbing toward a high point of US$19.9-billion by 2011. Today, BlackBerry has shed billions for millions. For all of fiscal 2026 (the company’s year ended Feb. 28), BlackBerry reported total revenues of US$549.1-million. This year, fiscal 2027, it expects to generate to- tal revenues of US$584-million to US$611- million, implying year-over-year growth of between 6 per cent and 11 per cent. Ho-hum? You bet. And that’s okay, because BlackBerry has reached the point in its turnaround where confidence in the company’s ability to deliver on its goals may be the primary driver of investor sentiment. More valuation metrics now make sense. A standout: The stock has an esti- mated price-to-earnings ratio of 27, ac- cording to S&P Global Market Intelligence. That’s not cheap. But nor is it crazy, and it gives investors something to chew on as the company moves forward with a solid backlog of orders within QNX, valued at US$950-million. As well, Mr. Coupland be- lieves that the company’s forecasts are conservative. Better-than-expected financial results should keep investor sentiment brewing nicely, and justify the lofty valuation. Holding on to BlackBerry shares during rallies has frequently tested the nerves of investors. But this one rests on something far more solid than hopes and dreams: ac- tual earnings and attractive growth. BlackBerry is delivering what investors crave: consistency DAVID BERMAN OPINION BlackBerry is now delivering consistent performance thanks largely to its QNX division, which makes software embedded in 275 million vehicles worldwide. CHRIS WATTIE/REUTERS Q: I’m a 65-year-old independent contractor with no company pen- sion and plan to retire in two years. I have a self-managed, direct investing account made up of TFSAs and registered savings plans holding a mix of ETFs and stocks that has a current balance of $980,000. In three years, my wife will get a small amount from the Canada Pension Plan and I will receive close to the CPP max, and we will both apply for Old Age Security. I plan to sell my individual stocks and purchase ETFs. With this in mind, I am intrigued to learn more about the “paycheque-style portfolio,” and wonder if we could live off the dividends combined with our CPP and OAS income. We asked Linda Shick, partner and portfolio manager at Family Wealth Counsel, part of Ray- mond James Ltd., to answer this one. T his is a great question, as it gets to the heart of retire- ment planning: cash flow, she said. “Before building a ‘pay- cheque portfolio,’ the most im- portant step is estimating your monthly income needs,” Ms. Shick said. “The common rule of spending 75 per cent of your pre- retirement income often falls short – many people actually spend the same or more in the early years of retirement, with more time for travel, hobbies and family.” According to Ms. Shick, the next step is determining where that income will come from. Alongside sources such as CPP, OAS or a company pension, your investment portfolio can be structured to deliver a steady stream of income, referred to here as a “paycheque-style port- folio.” The idea, she explained, is to live off the income generated from your assets and possibly drawing some of your capital. “The important last step is to cre- ate what we call a ‘stress test’ to ensure you don’t outlive your capital.” A lot of retirees face emotional difficulties transitioning from capital accumulation to capital drawdown, “but it’s important to remember that one reason for creating capital is to use it in re- tirement as long as it lasts your lifetime, which is why a retire- ment plan is necessary,” Ms. Shick said. The three steps as she de- scribed above are part of a fluid process. “It typically takes a few years of real-world experience to refine your spending as you settle into your new lifestyle and it is important to continue to update the plan,” she added. In order to create retirement cash flow, Ms. Shick suggested that an investment plan should include a diversified mix of divi- dend-paying stocks, potentially in the form of dividend-paying ETFs or income-producing mu- tual funds, in addition to fixed-in- come assets like bonds. “An important consideration with bond ETFs is that, while they can be effective in certain scena- rios, they fluctuate in value and typically have no set maturity date, which can make them less suitable for predictable retire- ment income.” Individual bonds, by contrast, provide defined ma- turity dates and return of princi- pal, offering more reliable cash flow, she advised. “One important principle we always follow for our clients is cash-flow protection,” Ms. Shick said. It’s important to ensure your cash needs are covered by your outside pension resources, in- come produced in the portfolio and a bond ladder (multiple bonds with staggered maturity dates) for at least three years, she said. That way, even if markets ex- perience negative returns or vola- tility – as we’ve seen lately – your cash flow is not affected and it be- comes similar to receiving a pay- cheque, which is predictable and constant, Ms. Shick added. “This approach can provide the confidence and stability needed to transition into retire- ment with clarity and peace of mind.” Do you want advice on a financial planning or retirement issue that’s affecting you? Send us an e-mail. I don’t have a company pension. How can I create a ‘paycheque-style portfolio’? VIVIAN VASSOS OPINION | REPORT ON BUSINESS