Fold the Market Drop Wins strategies into the Strategies Library

Background

SDC/IP/Strategies/ holds 25 strategies at schema v0.4, all domain: debt, all availability: always (that field is currently dropped — see Tasks §4). The Market Drop Wins project produced a parallel, differently-shaped library at SDC/Offerings/MarketDropWins/market-drop-wins-library-v2.md — 41 numbered strategies plus three non-strategy sets — that has never been reconciled with it.

The delta was counted in SMART-DEBT-Strategies-Library round 1 (2026-09-20) and is not in dispute:

	Count	Detail
Already in the library	5	T0-9 Equity Debt Swap → debt-swap · T1-7 Mortgage refinance → better-rates-mortgage · T3-4 Buy More Low → buy-more-low · T3-6 Interest deductibility → claim-investment-interest-deduction + interest-tracing-hygiene · T3-7 Debt Swap family → debt-swap + cash-damming
New debt strategies	6 (+1)	T1-8 · T3-1 · T3-2 · T3-3 · T3-5 · T0-14 · plus RRSP Gross-up, named in MDW’s Smart Debt Bridge as “the single best bridge” but never numbered
New not-debt strategies	30	16 of the 18 T0s · 6 of the 8 T1s · all 5 T2s · T3-8/9/10
Non-strategy sets	33	15 Harmful · ~15 Not Worth It · 3 Practice-tier

The CEO’s scope decision, made 2026-09-21: fold it all in, with domain: debt as the default view — nothing excluded, nothing duplicated, and the library keeps its identity because the not-debt set is one toggle away rather than a second library. This unparks “the non-debt Can’t Lose supplement (frozen)” from return-to-office-plan-v1 §5, deliberately.

Two MDW strategies are the most valuable single items in the fold-in. T3-2 (non-callable loan structure selection) is called “the highest-leverage insight in the library” — identical leverage, opposite outcomes, based purely on whether the lender can call — and it is risk-reducing, which is why MDW’s T-tiers cannot be mapped onto risk-level by formula. RRSP Gross-up is the named candidate to break the leverage/risk-level collinearity (see §3).

Tasks

1. Add the 7 new debt strategies

• Write one file per strategy into the correct SDC/IP/Strategies/<group>/ folder, conforming to SCHEMA v0.4. Sourcing standard is unchanged and non-negotiable: every claim traces to a named source; a field with no source says unverified — needs Talbot. A fabricated strategy is worse than a missing one.
  • T1-8 variable-rate debt relief · T3-1 pre-arranged non-callable credit capacity · T3-2 non-callable loan structure selection · T3-3 post-decline leverage deployment · T3-5 pre-decline leverage reduction · T0-14 HBP/LLP early repayment · RRSP Gross-up
• Assign code from the group prefix, never reused, never renumbered (SCHEMA §5). MG, LH and RA are declared-but-unused prefixes waiting for this batch.
• Re-tier each one individually against SCHEMA §2.2. MDW’s T0–T3 is availability + certainty; risk-level is magnitude. There is no formula — T3-2 is risk-reducing and almost certainly does not belong at level 2 or 3.

2. Reconcile the 5 overlaps — do not create duplicates

• For each of the 5, decide: fold MDW’s framing into the existing strategy’s body (usually right — a decline-conditioned variant is a ## Variants entry, not a new file), or split it out with its own code. Record the decision in the strategy’s ## Variants section either way.
• SSOT rule applies: one home, zero duplicates. Never leave two files describing the same mechanism.

3. Restore availability and decline-type — and test the leverage question

• Re-add availability (always / amplified-by-decline / drop-dependent) and decline-type (A deflationary / B inflationary / C valuation unwind / D liquidity shock) to SCHEMA.md §8’s vocabulary block. They were dropped in v0.3 because 24 of 25 strategies were always — this batch is where ~30 drop-dependent strategies make them load-bearing. See SCHEMA §7.
• decline-type is a permanent caveat, not a footnote. “Fails in an inflationary decline” must travel with the strategy wherever it is read — T1-2 threshold rebalancing and T3-3 post-decline deployment both carry it.
• Watch RRSP Gross-up specifically. It borrows to invest and is plausibly negative- or zero-risk. If it lands below level 2, it breaks the collinearity that justified dropping the leverage field — and it means the Risks compliance filter (risk-level >= 2) has a real gap. SCHEMA §2.3 records this as the named test; this task is where it resolves. Do not silently assign it level 2 to avoid the problem.

4. Add the 30 not-debt strategies

• domain: not-debt on every one. They are present, sorted and sourced — one toggle away in the viewer, not a second library.
• Same sourcing standard. This is comparable in size to the original 25-strategy build; treat it as such.

5. Add the Harmful and Not Worth It sets

• 15 Harmful — worth-it: harmful. These are actions that look like prudence and function as permanent loss. This is the library’s highest-trust content and its designated free lead magnet, and the artifact already has a place for it.
• ~15 Not Worth It — worth-it: not-worth-it. Real benefit, effort exceeds it. Publishing what was examined and rejected is what proves the rest was curated rather than padded.
• These may be thinner than a full strategy file — decide and record whether the full template applies to them or a reduced one does.

6. Practice-tier (3) goes elsewhere

• P-1/P-2/P-3 are help for an advisor growing their business — an offering, not client IP. They route to SDC/Offerings/Advisors/Strategies/, per the IP charter’s NOT owned list. Create that folder when the first one lands, not before.

7. Close the loop

• ~/utils/strategy-lint/strategy-lint lint clean, then index, then artifact.
• Update return-to-office-plan-v1 §5 — the non-debt Can’t Lose supplement is no longer parked.
• Re-check SCHEMA.md §2.3 and SDC/IP/JOB_DESCRIPTION.md if §3’s RRSP Gross-up test comes back positive.

Success Criteria

• Every MDW numbered strategy is either in the library with a source, reconciled into an existing strategy, or explicitly out of scope with a reason recorded — none silently dropped.
• strategy-lint lint runs clean; code, rank and group-rank are unique; every folder matches its group.
• No duplicate describes the same mechanism twice.
• The RRSP Gross-up leverage test is resolved either way, and SCHEMA §2.3 reflects the answer.
• effort and benefit stay unverified — needs Talbot unless Talbot has supplied them — do not guess them to fill the Worth It view.

Notes

• Do not import MDW’s time or effort estimates. MDW-review (2026-09-14) measured them at 2.0× to 4.2× optimistic, bottom-up. effort is ordinal and carries no hours for exactly this reason (SCHEMA §3.4).
• MDW — Market Drop Wins. SSOT — Single Source of Truth. IP — Intellectual Property.
• Source library: /mnt/d/FSS/KB/SDC/Offerings/MarketDropWins/market-drop-wins-library-v2.md · D:\FSS\KB\SDC\Offerings\MarketDropWins\market-drop-wins-library-v2.md. Its master log has the fuller reasoning: market-drop-wins-master-log-v2.md, same folder.
• Sizing, honestly: §1–§3 is a session. §4 is comparable to the original 25-strategy build. §5 is another. Consider running this as three sessions, not one — and re-rank it against the Biggest Rocks before starting §4.

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Claude Response — 2026-09-22

§1–§3 done. §4–§6 deferred to their own sessions, on the task’s own sizing note. Library 25 → 32 strategies, strategy-lint lint clean, index + viewer regenerated and browser-verified.

The headline: the RRSP Gross-up test came back POSITIVE. The compliance gap is real, not hypothetical.

Summary

• 7 new debt strategies written, one file each, all sourced — BR-5 Variable-Rate Relief · LS-7 Non-Callable First · LS-6 Standby Credit Capacity · LS-8 Pre-Decline Deleveraging · BM-2 Post-Decline Deployment · RA-1 HBP/LLP Early Repayment · IL-6 RRSP Gross-Up Loan. RA populated (new registered-accounts/ folder); MG and LH left unused — they belong to the not-debt half, and forcing them now would have been numbering for its own sake.
• Re-tiered individually, not by formula — exactly as the task warned. MDW’s T-tiers and risk-level disagree in both directions: T3-2 → level 1 (risk-reducing, adds no exposure) and T0-14 → level 0 (MDW’s “Can’t Lose” is availability + certainty; risk-level is magnitude). Nothing was mapped across.
• ⚠ The §2.3 leverage test resolved — the gap OPENED. IL-6 borrows money and puts it in the market, and it sits at level 1, so SDC/Risks’ risk-level >= 2 filter does not catch it. The tier turns entirely on the counterfactual: measured against Talbot’s own gross-up refund — which reaches the identical end state with no loan at all — the loan adds zero market exposure and merely re-arranges timing. Level 2’s own third clause (“returns exceeding an after-tax borrowing cost over a long horizon”) is simply false when the loan dies in weeks. It was not assigned 2 to make the problem go away, and it was not assigned 1 to manufacture a finding.
• A second escape found, by a different route — LS-7 Non-Callable First is also level 1 and is entirely about leverage. It governs leverage rather than taking it, so no clause of level 2 applies, yet nothing about leverage should reach a client unreviewed.
• Proposed fix written down, deliberately NOT applied — the filter becomes risk-level >= 2 OR the strategy’s mechanism involves borrowing. Whether that is the leverage field restored or a derived test is a CEO call routed through Risks, so v0.5 records it in SCHEMA §2.3 and §7 and changes nothing unilaterally. Both records carry a hand-routing flag in the meantime.
• All 5 overlaps reconciled as ## Variants entries — zero duplicates, zero new files. T0-9 + T3-7 → debt-swap (which now holds the three-member family mapping as its SSOT) · T1-7 → better-rates-mortgage · T3-4 → buy-more-low · T3-6 → claim-investment-interest-deduction + interest-tracing-hygiene. No MDW codes imported — MDW labels the equity debt swap DS-3, but DS-3 here is smith-manoeuvre.
• A 6th reconcile the task did not list, but SSOT required. rrsp-catch-up-loan’s own Open questions already asked “does the Top-Up Loan warrant its own record?” — IL-6 is that record. Left unlinked it would have been a duplicate by a different name. Both records now carry the distinction: IL-4 needs returns to beat the loan rate over ~10 years; IL-6 needs no hurdle rate at all.
• Schema v0.5 — availability and decline-type restored as optional, so the 25 pre-existing records stayed valid untouched (an omitted availability means always, which is what 24 of them were). Making them required would have invalidated the whole library to record a default.
• The decline-type caveat now travels to the reader, not just the file. strategy-lint artifact renders it as a warning tag naming the types a strategy fails in — “fails in B” — which is the form a reader acts on. Registered in Core/IT/Utils/Custom/strategy-lint.md.
• rank re-spaced 10–250 → 100–3200 in 100s, so the ~45 records still to come insert without a renumber. Lint enforces uniqueness, not monotonicity, and code stays grandfathered — nothing else moved.
• buy-more-low gained the thresholds it was missing — −20%/−30%, derived (−30% once per 12.1 years; “once a decade” interpolates to −28%, rounded because that is false precision on 16 observations), plus the crux stated against the strategy’s own interest: half the time the second tranche never deploys, and tranching buys adherence, not alpha. It stays unverified — sizing is unsettled and every figure is S&P price-index, needing Canadian total-return recomputation before anything ships.
• Verified, not assumed — lint clean at 32; index wrote 11 files; the viewer rendered headlessly in real Chromium: 32 cards, all 7 new titles present, 2 decline-type caveats, 4 availability tags, zero console errors.
• return-to-office-plan-v1 §5 updated — non-debt Can’t Lose supplement unparked (8 parked items → 7), with the remaining work named and pointed at §4–§6 here.
• Charter and Talbot-Later.md updated, per task §7’s third bullet. SDC/IP/JOB_DESCRIPTION.md claimed the filter and the old leverage flag were “equivalent”, and that a gap could only open at negative or zero risk — both wrong now, and wrong in the direction that hides the problem, since the gap opened at level 1. Corrected. The four deferred CEO decisions are queued in SDC/IP/Talbot-Later.md rather than living only here, because /task-complete can delete this file.
• Committed. _active.md updated under SDC dept.

Two deliberate non-changes, recorded so nobody “fixes” them later:

• 18 records still say version: "0.4". Only the 14 files whose content changed were bumped to 0.5. A rank re-spacing is mechanical classification, not a substantive change (SCHEMA §6), and version records schema conformance — those 18 conform to v0.5 unchanged, because the two new fields are optional. Bumping them would assert a review that did not happen.
• The viewer shows IL-6 as “Level 1 · most should consider” with no hand-routing flag. Safe today — status: draft, nothing auto-publishes — but it is the same the caveat must reach the reader principle just implemented for decline-type. Doing it properly needs a field to drive it, and that is a schema change that should follow the Risks decision rather than pre-empt it.

Two source gaps found and flagged rather than filled — this is the sourcing rule working, and both block external publication:

• The “Gross-up document” is not in the vault. return-to-office-plan-v1 §5 names it as the strategy’s full-state source; a vault-wide search finds nothing. IL-6 is reconstructed from the sd-math formula plus MDW’s one paragraph — the single most valuable record in this batch rests on a missing source. Where is it? *
• HBP/LLP repayment mechanics are unsourced. Whether a designated repayment generates a contribution deduction, the schedule, the designation — nothing reachable states them, so RA-1 says unverified — needs Talbot rather than guessing a basic-sounding fact. *

Next Steps for Talbot

• Route the compliance gap to Risks — this is the one that matters. IL-6 and LS-7 both sit at level 1 and both escape risk-level >= 2. Recommended second criterion: risk-level >= 2 OR mechanism involves borrowing. SDC/Risks/Tasks/sdc-risks-canada-leverage-compliance.md is open and is the right home. *
• Confirm or replace two coined names. (a) Non-Callable First for MDW’s non-callable loan structure selection. (b) RRSP Gross-Up Loan — and this one is a genuine collision, not a preference: your own corpus uses gross-up refund for the loan-free variant and top-up loan for the loan, while MDW uses RRSP Gross-up for the loan. Shipping the bare MDW name would make two different strategies share one word permanently. *
• Confirm the two contested tiers before Risks sees them. BM-2 Post-Decline Deployment held at 3 for consistency with BML — but a fully pre-committed threshold rule through a non-callable facility arguably fails the timing-judgement test and belongs at 2. LS-8 Pre-Decline Deleveraging at 0, which permits a forced choice. *
• Decide whether §4 (30 not-debt strategies) starts next, or yields to another Rock. The task itself says re-rank first, and §4 is comparable in size to the original 25-strategy build. *
• Hygiene, found in passing: SDC/Strategy/Tasks/sdc-strategy-library-v01.md is still status: active for the same library, which moved to SDC/IP/ on 2026-09-21. Two active task files, one library. Close it or supersede it. *

Path to Completion

Review it: library-view.html — /mnt/d/FSS/KB/SDC/IP/Strategies/library-view.html · D:\FSS\KB\SDC\IP\Strategies\library-view.html — 32 strategies now; open the Risk ladder view and look at levels 0 and 1, where the 7 new records landed and where the tiering decisions are contestable. The new fails in B tags are the decline-type caveat.

Project SSOT: SCHEMA.md — /mnt/d/FSS/KB/SDC/IP/Strategies/SCHEMA.md · D:\FSS\KB\SDC\IP\Strategies\SCHEMA.md (v0.5; §2.3 holds the resolved leverage test) · index.md — /mnt/d/FSS/KB/SDC/IP/Strategies/index.md (generated, read-only) · oversight SSOT: SDC/IP/JOB_DESCRIPTION.md

Now: /task-continue D:\FSS\KB\SDC\IP\Projects\Strategies-Library\Tasks\sdc-ip-mdw-strategy-foldin.md Answer the five Next Steps above. The compliance routing and the two names are the blocking ones — everything else can proceed without them.

Then, in order:

1. /task-continue D:\FSS\KB\SDC\IP\Projects\Strategies-Library\Tasks\sdc-ip-mdw-strategy-foldin.md — §4, the 30 not-debt strategies at domain: not-debt. Own session, fresh context. Re-rank against the Biggest Rocks first.
2. /task-continue D:\FSS\KB\SDC\IP\Projects\Strategies-Library\Tasks\sdc-ip-mdw-strategy-foldin.md — §5, the 15 Harmful + ~15 Not Worth It sets, plus §6 (3 practice-tier records → SDC/Offerings/Advisors/Strategies/). Decide first whether the reduced template applies to them.
3. /task-complete D:\FSS\KB\SDC\IP\Projects\Strategies-Library\Tasks\sdc-ip-mdw-strategy-foldin.md — closes this thread once all 41 MDW strategies are placed.
4. effort + benefit — (2026-09-23: the parent task SMART-DEBT-Strategies-Library closed and became the ongoing project Strategies-Library; this item now lives in its ROADMAP, under Waiting on Talbot.)

Related open tasks (parallel work, not choices):

• sdc-risks-canada-leverage-compliance — startable now — /task-continue D:\FSS\KB\SDC\Risks\Tasks\sdc-risks-canada-leverage-compliance.md — where the filter gap this session found should land
• sdc-risks-us-compliance-research — startable now — /task-start D:\FSS\KB\SDC\Risks\Tasks\sdc-risks-us-compliance-research.md — every record still says U.S. applicability is unverified; MDW’s T2-5 Roth conversion is explicitly US-only and cannot be folded in until this runs
• Parent is now an ongoing project (2026-09-23) — Strategies-Library; this task tracks under it.
• sdc-behavioural-solutions-debt — blocked on sdc-dept-scaffold-mbr-absorb — settles SCHEMA §2.4’s intervention ceilings, which is what level 0 vs 1 actually does
• sdc-strategy-library-v01 — needs closing, not starting; superseded by the SDC/IP move

Blocked on you (no command fixes these):

• The Gross-up document — named in the plan, absent from the vault. IL-6 cannot get past documented without it.
• HBP/LLP repayment mechanics — RA-1 blocked for external publication.
• The two coined names — CEO decision under SCHEMA §1.1; a rename after publication breaks every citation.
• Risks review of the level-1 assignments and the filter gap — the IP charter’s inherited gate, and it runs before the CEO, not after.
• effort + benefit on all 32 — still the viewer’s two empty axes.

Done when: every one of MDW’s 41 numbered strategies plus the Harmful and Not Worth It sets is either a record in SDC/IP/Strategies/ with a named source, reconciled into an existing record’s ## Variants, or routed out of the library with the reason written down — with strategy-lint lint clean and the compliance-filter gap resolved by Risks.

Talbot Response

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