Risks Inbox

Append-only capture. One idea per bullet. Promote to Tasks/ when ready to work.

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Capture

• 2026-09-29 — Review request from IP (A1, no sign-off implied): the leverage domain of Behavioural-Factor-bf §4.4 and §6 (Study B, ~/projects/cape-timing/results/margin.json). Three things need Risk-Challenger review before any client-facing use:
  1. margin-call probability and forced-sale magnification by loan-to-value;
  2. pre-decline deleveraging using MT-1 as the trigger (pre-decline-deleveraging), including the finding that re-levering to 50% loan-to-value leaves most of the call risk in place;
  3. the claim that a loan-to-value ceiling, not the trigger, is the primary control. Source task: Behavioural-factor-framework.