MDW offering: the Valuation + Trend Rule as a client-ready tool

Background

• The parent task Market-timing-refined-analysis (2026-09-24) found that a pre-committed rule protects better at extreme valuations than lump-sum-now or selling on valuation alone. The rule: when valuations are extreme and the price trend breaks, halve stocks (or move fully to cash). Evidence, US 1926–2026:
  • Halving earned 10.2% vs 10.3% a year and cut the worst decline from −84% to −62%.
  • For 60/40 (becoming 30/70 when the rule fires), the return was unchanged and the worst decline fell from −63% to −40%.
  • The rule belongs in an RRSP or TFSA; in a taxable account, each exit realizes gains.
• Strategy record (IP, draft): valuation-trend-rule (MT-1, new group market-timing).
• Reports: Market Timing at High Market Valuations (https://claude.ai/artifact/BfA8jRojdFHtLArKBj3U8w) and the companion Valuation + Trend Rule (https://claude.ai/artifact/4xd4oHHcwSEwCiJ6PqhrKB). Local copies: ~/artifacts/. Code: ~/projects/cape-timing (cape-timing).
• Talbot (2026-09-24): “This could be a key part of a Market Drop Wins offering.” He approved spinning it out.
• Brand architecture changed (Talbot, 2026-09-27): the umbrella brand is now High Markets Wealth (domain HighMarketsWealth.com, registered 2026-09-27). High Markets Wealth Systems is the core collection of strategies for high valuations, and Market Drop Wins is a companion system inside it, not a separate business (MarketDropWins.com held for optionality). This rule belongs to the High Markets side (prepare while markets are high), and hands off to Market Drop Wins after a decline. SSOT: High-Markets-Wealth-Naming-Brainstorm-Summary; naming review in the parent task, round 10.
• Current report names (2026-09-25/28): Extreme Market Valuations: Investor Risks, Costs, and a Practical Solution (~/artifacts/investing-market-timing.html) and A Practical Behavioural Solution for High Markets (~/artifacts/investing-timing-solution.html), same links as above.
• Gates: Risks reviews the record’s tier (proposed level 0), and client-facing material needs supervisor pre-approval (MDW-review §6.3).

Tasks

• Draft a one-page client rule card: the rule, when to check it, re-entry, the accounts to use, and “who should avoid it”. Educational wording, no recommendations.
• Draft a 2-page advisor explainer: the evidence in the Brief form, the objections and the answers, and how it fits the Market Drop Wins discovery process.
• Decide where it sits in the MDW kit (see MDW-review), and whether the Opportunity Quantifier should show the rule’s current state (armed / trend).
• Prepare the compliance package: the list of client-facing artifacts for supervisor pre-approval.
• Propose a coined name for CEO decision (the working label is “Valuation + Trend Rule”).

Success Criteria

• The rule card and advisor explainer exist as HTML artifacts in ~/artifacts/ using the report standards (Brief/Full, findings first, Context).
• The Risks review of MT-1’s tier is requested (not necessarily complete).
• The compliance pre-approval list is written.
• The CEO has a name shortlist to choose from.