B10 G THE GLOBE AND MAIL | TUESDAY, MAY 12, 2026 GLOBE INVESTOR | REPORT ON BUSINESS S uburbs across Canada are filled with family-sized homes, owned by aging ba- by boomers whose children have long since moved out. Many young families, meanwhile, are stuffed into condos and town- houses with cramped space. It wasn’t supposed to play out like this. A prediction first made in the 1990s was that Canada would experience a glut of fam- ily-sized homes as part of the so- called “silver tsunami,” which would eventually cause home prices to crash. This crash would allow young middle-class par- ents to buy these homes at affor- dable prices and eliminate the need to build more homes. Unfortunately, those who be- lieve the middle-class housing crisis will solve itself are failing to consider the number of young people currently looking for family-sized homes, how long generational turnover really takes and, most importantly, the impact of immigration on housing demand. The silver tsunami theory of housing gets a lot right. As of the 2021 census, 54 per cent of all sin- gle- and semi-detached homes were owned by those aged 55 and up. Those 4.2 million homes will eventually be turned over, as their owners either downsize, move to long-term care facilities or die. The theory also correctly ac- knowledges the impact of Cana- da’s falling fertility rates. Statis- tics Canada projects that, by around 2029, for the first time in Canadian history, deaths will outpace births, with roughly 355,000 deaths and 351,700 births. The gap between the two will grow over time: By 2050, there will be 80,000 more deaths each year than births. However, these trends will not leave Canada with a sudden glut of family-sized suburban homes for three reasons. First, baby boomers will not be leaving these homes all at once to downsize or move into long- term care homes. Rather, it will be a gradual process, as the ba- by-boom generation covers al- most two full decades. The house doesn’t tend to go onto the market until both members of a couple move on – and those couples could be 10 years apart in age or more. The silver tsunami thesis also overlooks the large number of families who do not own a sub- urban home, but would like to. If Canadians who were between the ages of 15 to 44 in 2021 even- tually own single- and semi- detached homes at the same rate as the baby boomers, they will occupy 4.9 million homes, well above the 4.2 million that will one day be freed up by those aged 55 and up. The pent-up demand to buy a home among those born in the 1980s, 90s and 2000s will exceed the number put on the market by the baby boomers. In fact, the Missing Middle Initiative pre- dicts many of those homes may never be sold at all and instead will be inherited by the boomers’ grandchildren. Suburban homes could increasingly become something that young families inherit rather than purchase. Finally, the silver tsunami the- ory overlooks the impact of im- migration. Having 80,000 more deaths each year than births is noteworthy, but it is relatively small compared to the popula- tion growth driven by immigra- tion. The federal government’s re- cent immigration plan would add an additional 370,000 per- manent residents annually in 2027 and 2028. The target be- yond 2028 has not been set, but it will almost certainly be above 80,000 a year. Statistics Canada’s projections have the target in- creasing to 455,000 persons by 2050. Newcomers to Canada don’t often buy suburban homes upon arrival, but many eventually do – whether they were new arrivals from Italy in the 1950s or India in the 1990s. A large part of what makes Canada attractive to new- comers is the opportunity to own a home with a garden, a yard and space to raise children. The Missing Middle Initiative has a tool that translates popula- tion projections into housing de- mand forecasts, called the Rest of Canada Average Benchmark (RoCA Benchmark). The tool takes into account sources of new housing demand such as immigration and young people reaching home-buying age, as well as the number of homes that will be freed up, owing to population aging, to indicate how many homes need to be built each year to keep pace, called the “net demand.” Using Statistics Canada pop- ulation projections, we find that the net demand for ground- based ownership housing, in- cluding single- and semi-de- tached homes and townhomes, will fall from roughly 100,000 homes a year later this decade to 85,000 by 2046 owing to the sil- ver tsunami, after which net de- mand begins to rise again. The silver tsunami will hap- pen, and the increased turnover of suburban homes will reduce the number of family-sized homes we need to build. But for net demand to turn negative, im- migration levels would need to be reduced to levels unseen since the 1930s, which no main- stream political party is propos- ing to do. We still need to build more homes. Aging boomers don’t bring a glut of housing While many young families are seeking out suburban homes, the ‘silver tsunami’ once predicted isn’t occurring MIKE MOFFATT OPINION Founding director of the Missing Middle Initiative and co-host of the Missing Middle podcast A prediction first made in the 1990s was that Canada would experience a glut of family-sized homes as part of the so-called ‘silver tsunami,’ which would eventually cause home prices to crash. This crash would allow young middle-class parents to buy these homes at affordable prices and eliminate the need to build more homes. C anadians are filing for insol- vencies at levels unseen in more than a decade as ris- ing costs and uncertainty around housing and employment put more strain on consumers, ac- cording to the latest data from the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy. The number of Canadians who filed for insolvency jumped 8.5 per cent year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026 to 37,121, the highest quarterly volume since 2009, the OSB recorded in statis- tics released on Monday. But the accelerating pace of in- solvencies may be even more concerning than the volume, said Doug Hoyes, a licensed insolvency trustee and co-foun- der of Hoyes, Michalos & Associ- ates. Insolvencies rose 4.2 per cent year-over-year in the 12-month period ending March 31 and the number of monthly insolvencies rose 17.5 per cent between Janu- ary and March. “It’s the canary in the coal mine,” he said. Although insolvencies reac- hed their highest quarterly vol- ume since 2009, Mr. Hoyes said the numbers cannot be easily compared. That’s owing to the change in population levels, up- dates to the insolvency filing process and the global financial crisis at the time. In the OSB data, British Columbia posted the highest overall spike in consumer insol- vencies – bankruptcies and con- sumer proposals combined – rising 16.2 per cent year-over- year. A consumer proposal, Mr. Hoyes said, is a deal that allows someone in debt to avoid losing assets by agreeing to repay their creditors more over time. A bank- ruptcy means individuals may be required to forfeit assets to pay the debt. Consumer proposals are more common among people who feel relatively stable or optimistic about their future finances, Mr. Hoyes said. In Ontario, consumer propos- als rose 14.7 per cent, but the province held a far bigger share of bankruptcies, which grew more than 25 per cent compared with 8.6 per cent in B.C. Mr. Hoyes said some of the bankruptcy spike in Ontario may be tied to the bigger economic impact of U.S. tariffs in the province, as it has a large manu- facturing sector. Worsening economic condi- tions mean the trend in insolven- cies could be sustained over a longer period. Across Canada, the unemploy- ment rate in April rose to 6.9 per cent compared with 6.7 per cent in March as the economy shed 18,000 jobs. But the biggest strain on Cana- dians are expenses that are in- creasing faster than incomes, es- pecially as the price of fuel sends costs at the pump soaring. Food, which uses fuel at almost every stage of production and delivery, has also been hit hard by gaso- line costs. In March, grocery prices were 35 per cent higher than just be- fore the pandemic, BMO Eco- nomics reported last week. While the bulk of insolvency filings are made by renters, ac- cording to Mr. Hoyes, homeown- er insolvencies are gradually ris- ing as well. A February report from his firm found that homeowner insolvencies are now 8 per cent of filings compared with 5 per cent in 2024. The proportion of two-income households reac- hing insolvency also spiked to 23 per cent, the highest level since 2017. André Bolduc, a licensed insol- vency trustee who was speaking on behalf of the Canadian Associ- ation of Insolvency and Restruc- turing Professionals, said that the three main factors driving insol- vencies are expenses related to housing, auto loans and food. As consumers are amortizing their car payments over longer periods, with payments reaching as many as seven years now, their shortfalls become higher when they default or trade in their car early. Mr. Bolduc says he has seen shortfalls on cars that range from $10,000 to $30,000. “That really adds up,” he said. He said while Canadians have carried higher levels of house- hold debt than the rest of the G7 for more than a decade, rising housing costs and employment pressure could push Canadians who have long been on the brink of insolvency closer to the edge. He said he wouldn’t be surprised if the trend continues for a while. “Insolvency is kind of a lagging indicator,” Mr. Bolduc said. “It’s not the problem per se. It’s a symptom of what’s happened in the past.” ZARIF SINHA MARIYA POSTELNYAK Number of Canadians filing for insolvency is picking up fast, with B.C. seeing highest spike Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s call to avoid gold purchases for a year to help protect foreign exchange reserves fuelled concerns of higher import tariffs on the metal, sending shares of Indian jewellery retailers lower. The Iran war has sent oil prices surging and that in turn has resulted in mounting pressure on India’s balance of payments and the rupee. India is the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer, meeting more than 90 per cent of its crude oil needs and about half of its natural gas demand through imports. Mr. Modi’s remarks about gold on Sunday came along with a range of other measures he urged, including fuel conserva- tion, increasing working from home and limits on travel and imports. Gold is in high demand in In- dia, particularly for weddings where gold jewellery is seen as a crucial part of a bride’s attire and is a popular gift from family and friends. While it is the world’s second-largest gold consumer, India relies on imports to meet nearly all of its demand. Shares of jewellery makers such as Titan, Senco Gold and Kalyan Jewellers fell between 6 per cent and 9 per cent on Monday. “There are concerns that the government might sharply increase import duty on gold for a year to discourage imports,” said Sure- ndra Mehta, national secretary at the India Bullion and Jewellers Association. “Duties could be raised even higher than levels seen in recent years.” In 2012 and 2013, New Delhi hiked tariffs on gold imports to stabilize a rapidly depreciating rupee. Now, jewellers fear that duty cuts made in 2024 to 6 per cent from 15 per cent to curb smuggling could soon be reversed. A government source said on Monday, how- ever, that India has no plans to raise duties on gold and silver imports. India’s balance of payments is expected to deteriorate sharply this April-March fiscal year to a deficit of about US$66-billion to US$70- billion, compared with an estimated US$26- billion to US$28-billion in 2025-26. Pressure on the rupee has prompted the central bank to sell the dollar and limit the size of trading positions that banks can take. It has also clamped down on arbitrage trades. The Indian rupee closed at a record low of 95.31 to the U.S. dollar on Monday. Senior government officials said on Monday India has suffi- cient gasoline and diesel suppli- es. But, fuel retailers incur losses of about 100 rupees ($1.43) a litre on diesel and 20 rupees (29 cents) a litre on gasoline by sell- ing the fuels below market rates. State retailers have not raised gasoline and diesel prices since April, 2022. Mr. Modi will embark on a five-nation tour taking in the United Arab Emirates and Eu- rope from May 15 to 20, India’s foreign ministry said in a state- ment on Monday. Mr. Modi is to visit the UAE on Friday and subsequently travel to the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway and Italy, the statement said. Mr. Modi and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan will exchange views on bilateral issues, in particular energy co- operation, as well as “regional and interna- tional issues of mutual interest,” the state- ment said. The European leg of the trip will be to dee- pen India’s trade and investment ties with these countries, following up on the India-EU trade deal agreed upon earlier this year, the statement said. REUTERS A gold necklace is displayed inside a jewellery store in the old quarters of Delhi, India, on Monday. Gold is in high demand in India, particularly for weddings. BHAWIKA CHHABRA/REUTERS Modi urges pause on gold buying in India to protect rupee RAJENDRA JADHAV NIMESH VORA MUMBAI There are concerns that the government might sharply increase import duty on gold for a year to discourage imports. SURENDRA MEHTA NATIONAL SECRETARY AT THE INDIA BULLION AND JEWELLERS ASSOCIATION