B8 G THE GLOBE AND MAIL | MONDAY, MARCH 30, 2026 GLOBE INVESTOR | REPORT ON BUSINESS F ollowing the crowd is an easy way to find good restau- rants, music and other worthwhile experiences. It’s not a perfect strategy by any means, but popularity provides a handy shortcut to the good life. Crowd-following also works well in the markets where mo- mentum has been highly suc- cessful over the long term. The idea is to buy stocks that have climbed the most over the past six to 12 months while being pre- pared to jump to the next hot thing when it comes along. Today’s examples of Canadian momentum are the six-month and 12-month momentum port- folios, which chalked up average annual gains of 17.4 per cent and 19.5 per cent, respectively, over the 26 years through to the end of February, 2026. Meanwhile, the Canadian stock market, as represented by the S&P/TSX Composite Index, climbed at an average annual rate of 8.1 per cent. (The returns herein are based on backtests using monthly data from Bloomberg. They include dividend reinvestment but not fund fees, taxes, commissions or other trading costs. The portfo- lios are equally weighted and re- balanced monthly.) Both mo- mentum portfolios start with the largest 300 common stocks on the TSX, by market capitaliza- tion. They then buy an equal-dol- lar amount of the 10 stocks with the highest six-month, or 12- month, prior returns. The portfolios are rebalanced monthly, which is akin to selling all of their stocks and rebuilding them from scratch. Mind you, the 10-stock portfo- lios tend to be fairly risky. It’s safer to opt instead for portfolios containing 20, 30, or 50 of the top prior performers. As expected, portfolios with five stocks didn’t fare as well and tended to be more volatile. You can examine the long-term growth rates of the aforementioned portfolios in the accompanying table. It’s worth pointing out that similar one-stock portfolios basically went bust over the 26-year period, with the six- month version losing 99.9 per cent of its money and the 12- month version falling 93.4 per cent. Both gave up more than 80 per cent in only a few months when the internet bubble pop- ped in 2000 and they continued to lag thereafter. Mind you, the more diversified momentum portfolios also suf- fered from sharp downturns from time to time and the ac- companying graph shows peri- ods when the 10-stock portfolios fell from their prior highs. As you can see, the biggest declines for the six- and 12-month momen- tum portfolios occurred in the early 2000s when they fell 66 and 71 per cent, respectively. The market index fared a bit better but still stumbled 43 per cent from its prior high. The financial crisis of 2008- 2009 was another doozy of a downturn. Once again, the mar- ket index fell 43 per cent from its prior high. The relative results for the momentum portfolios were mixed this time around with the six- and 12-month portfolios fall- ing 40 per cent and 60 per cent, respectively. But, generally speaking, the 10-stock momentum portfolios were far more volatile than the market index over the 26-year period. They also languished al- most twice as often than the market index in corrections (down more than 10 per cent from their prior highs) and bear markets (down more than 20 per cent). In recent months, the six- and 12-month portfolios have been surging higher with gains of 137 per cent and 248 per cent, respec- tively, over the year to the end of February, 2026. The market index advanced by 39 per cent over the same period. While I’ve high hopes that the more diversified momentum portfolios will continue to fare well over the long term, it’ll be interesting to see how well they hold up as the war in the Middle East progresses. Details on the stocks in the six-month and 12-month 10-stock momentum portfolios and the others regularly followed at The Globe and Mail can be found via a link in the online version of this article. Crowd-following works well in the markets Recently, the six- and 12-month momentum portfolios have been surging higher NORMAN ROTHERY OPINION PhD, CFA, founder of StingyInvestor.com 10-stock momentum portfolios stumble Fraction of prior peak 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 S&P/TSX Composite Index 6-month portfolio 12-month portfolio THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: BLOOMBERG The deadline for filing taxes in Can- ada for 2026 is April 30. As the big day approaches, Globe Advisor and Globe Investor have teamed up to offer advice on how to maximize re- turns, find credits and avoid an au- dit. The full series can be found on- line. T he Carney government has eliminated a controversial federal tax on underused or vacant homes, but many homeowners still have to navi- gate versions of the levy depend- ing on where they live. The federal Underused Hous- ing Tax (UHT) was introduced by the Trudeau government to en- sure that housing stock wasn’t tied up by investors leaving prop- erties empty. It charged a 1-per- cent tax on the value of an affect- ed home. Since its 2022 introduction, the tax has been widely criti- cized. Thousands of Canadians were required to submit paper- work, and the overwhelming ma- jority of people who were re- quired to file didn’t have to pay any tax. This created an adminis- trative burden that generated lit- tle revenue for the Canada Reve- nue Agency. “There was a fair amount of backlash from Canadian resi- dents and corporations because of the level of compliance that was required,” said Stefanie Ric- chio, a chartered professional ac- countant and spokesperson for TurboTax Canada, adding that the changes around the UHT are a result of its administrative bur- den on Canadians. The tax still applies for the 2022-2024 tax years, however. The new rules, which became law last week when the Senate granted royal assent to the bud- get implementation act, mean most Canadians will be exempt from the UHT and won’t be re- quired to file paperwork for it. Ms. Ricchio said that foreign na- tionals and corporations that are not incorporated in Canada are among the few still required to file for UHT. However, given that some mu- nicipalities and provinces have their own UHT rules, it’s imper- ative to check if the region where you own your home has a form of UHT, and whether a declara- tion is required. Ms. Ricchio said one thing that most municipal and provincial UHTs have in common is that they start charging homeowners when a property has been vacant for more than six months in a year. If you don’t declare, some ci- ties – such as Hamilton – may consider your home vacant and add the tax. Others will charge you for a late declaration. Yan- nick Lemay, an H&R Block tax ex- pert, noted exemptions may ap- ply in cases such as illness or ma- jor renovations. Here’s what else you need to know about these regional poli- cies. BRITISH COLUMBIA B.C.’s version of the UHT is called the Speculation and Vacancy Tax, and it’s notable because the province recently announced that it is raising the amount it will tax in 2026. The tax level stands at 2 per cent for the 2025 tax year, and Mr. Lemay said it will increase to 3 per cent for 2026. Homeowners are required to complete a decla- ration of their home’s status by March 31. Late payments incur a 10-per- cent penalty plus accrued inter- est. The province also offers a non- refundable tax credit of up to $4,000 for people affected by the province’s vacancy tax, an in- crease from $2,000 in previous years. Ms. Ricchio said this helps offset overlapping municipal, provincial and federal taxes. For- eign buyers are not eligible for the tax credit. VANCOUVER Vancouver’s Empty Homes Tax makes the city a unique jurisdic- tion where individuals could face an underused housing tax on the federal, provincial and municipal levels. Underused homes are taxed at 3 per cent of a property’s assessed value, and the declaration dead- line for this tax this year was Feb. 3. A late payment will result in a 5-per-cent fee on the levied amount. Introduced in 2017, Vancouv- er’s Empty Homes Tax was de- signed to address housing affor- dability. TORONTO Toronto is one of multiple Onta- rio cities that imposes their own tax, called the Vacant Home Tax. Homeowners are required to declare whether their home was vacant or occupied for the 2025 tax year by April 30. Toronto charges 3 per cent of the property’s assessed value as determined by the Municipal Property Assessment Corpora- tion. Exemptions for homeowners apply in cases such as principal residents in care, extensive re- pairs or major renovations. OTTAWA Ottawa’s Vacant Unit Tax is unique because it has a gradu- ated fee structure that grows with every consecutive year that a property is left vacant. The tax starts at 1 per cent of a unit’s value, and it increases by 1 per cent each year that a proper- ty remains vacant, to a maxi- mum cap of 5 per cent. The decla- ration deadline was March 19. HAMILTON Hamilton also charges 1 per cent of a property’s assessed value for its Vacant Unit Tax. The deadline for declaration is April 15, and a late fee of $250 will be charged for declarations made up to May 15. After May 15, the city’s website states that a home will be auto- matically considered vacant and the 1-per-cent tax will be charged. The city reported that 2.5 per cent of homes either declared that they were vacant or were deemed vacant by the city for the 2024 tax year. PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA These two Maritime provinces don’t have formal vacancy taxes, but they do charge higher tax rates for non-resident owners. In Nova Scotia, Ms. Ricchio says non-residents are charged in a tiered system that ranges from 0.5 per cent to 2 per cent for homes with a value above $150,000. Vacant homes are charged a flat 2-per-cent rate. In PEI, non-resident property owners are also charged higher rates that vary between munici- palities. Canadians still have to navigate provinces and cities’ policies on underused homes SALMAAN FAROOQUI M y husband is ready to have his heart broken again. After swearing off baseball, nay all sports, after the Blue Jays’ crushing World Series defeat last year, it appears he is ready to love again. He is taking our daughter to a game this week. It’s the kind of delusional opti- mism I wish he would apply when I say, “I think a road trip with three kids would be fun.” Here are five things to know this week: Duration risk: The key driver for the markets will continue to be the war in Iran as it enters its fifth week. The S&P 500 fell for a fifth week in a row, its longest los- ing streak since 2022. The Nasdaq entered correction territory with a 10-per-cent pullback. The S&P/ TSX Composite hasn’t been spared, down 7.6 per cent from the record high. Under the hood, the damage is worse. Sixty-four per cent of TSX stocks are in cor- rection territory while 75 per cent of stocks are in correction on the S&P 500. “We can’t call the duration of this conflict with any accuracy,” Amritha Kasturirangan, vice- president and portfolio manager at Franklin Templeton’s Franklin Equity Group, said on my podcast last week. “But a few things stand out … the timing of mid-term elections and the rising price of gas at the pump. If you start get- ting close to a five-handle [on gas prices], that starts creating mas- sive consumer anxiety. Those should act as natural brakes on this administration’s willingness to prolong the war.” The US$30- billion fund manager said this, coupled with positive underlying fundamentals like the AI produc- tivity cycle, should win out the day for investors. The price of war: We will get our first glimpse of how the war in Iran affected the American economy this week. Inflation may first show up in the ISM read- ing of the manufacturing sector, specifically the prices paid com- ponent. At last reading, prices paid hit the highest level since 2022 and that was before the spike in energy prices. On Friday, we will get the U.S. jobs report, which is expected to show growth of 51,000 jobs. While that would be better than the 92,000 jobs lost in February, it is still well below 125,000 average monthly job gains over the past 10 years. “With the labour market returning to modest net job growth in March, the energy pric- es shock is expected to keep the Fed on hold at least until Septem- ber,” wrote Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Econom- ics. Difficult go: Embattled sub- prime lender goeasy Ltd. will re- port results Tuesday, after delay- ing its earnings with a disastrous warning about writedowns, which forced the company to sus- pend its dividend. That led to a 72-per-cent crash in the stock this year. A few weeks ago, goeasy an- nounced more than $200-million in charges owing to losses in its auto and powersport lending business. This followed reports from short-seller Jehoshaphat Research in September, accusing the company of sitting on impro- perly delayed credit losses. Now that the stock has cra- tered, and the short-seller has said the worst is over, investors (if there are any left) will want clar- ity on the path toward recovery. Last week, the company an- nounced amended lending agree- ments, which provides up to $983-million in liquidity. “[The lending agreement announce- ment] implies that GSY can avoid a worst-case scenario of having to undertake a dilutive equity raise and/or having to idle more of its lending operations,” wrote Jeff Fenwick, ATB Cormark’s co-head of equity research. “And provides time and space for GSY to reorient its business plan.” Analysts ex- pect a loss for the fourth quarter. On the ropes: Nike Inc. re- ports Tuesday after the bell with its stock trading at an 8½-year low. A new chief executive officer, product realignment and activist investor have all failed to halt the stock’s decline. Analysts expect earnings per share will drop 43 per cent from last year while sales growth remains anemic. China, which represents 15 per cent of sales, has been a pain point. Last quarter, sales in the Chinese mar- ket fell 17 per cent. Nike has been dealing with twin battles. The first is the self- inflicted wound of attempting di- rect-to-consumer sales, which led to lost market share. The second is tariffs, which have negatively affected Nike because it makes the bulk of its products abroad. The worst of the tariffs may be be- hind it, argued Barclays analyst Adrienne Yih, who upgraded the stock earlier this month. She sees “inflections” in the financials and notes the company is making good progress on turnaround ef- forts, which “provide a solid foun- dation for a more constructive in- vestment thesis.” Cool start: The Canadian economy is expected to show no growth in the month of January when the figures are released Tuesday morning. We will also get a flash estimate for February. These are numbers from before the war broke out, but they will give us a sense of how much the Canadian economy was under pressure in the lead-up to the war. We will also get a read of Cana- da’s trade position with new data out on Thursday. Recall, last year Canada posted its widest trade deficit on record outside of the COVID years. Economists expect this will start to narrow, in part because of oil prices. “We expect a narrowing in Canada’s trade def- icit from $3.6-billion to $1.8-bil- lion driven by a partial rebound in auto exports and higher oil prices. The deficit should contin- ue to narrow in March after the Middle East conflict drove oil prices sharply higher,” wrote RBC senior economist Claire Fan and economist Abbey Xu. Special to The Globe and Mail How much longer will stocks’ losing streak last? AMBER KANWAR